Chook Me!

probability question...?

The firm "The happy chiken" produces poultry products for the local market. the chickens are provided by 3 farms. Farm A supplies 45% of the chicken, while farms B and C provide 35% and 20% of the chiken respectively. 4% of the chicken supplied by farm A are below the standard weight while the corresponding presentages for farm B and C are 5 and 8 respectivly. if a chicken randomly selected is found to be below the standard weight, calculate the probability that this chiken was supplied by 1) farm A 2) farm B.

Public Comments

1. 1) 0.45*0.04/(0.45*0.04+0.35*0.05+0.2*0.08) = 0.3495 = 34.95 % 2) 0.35*0.05/(0.45*0.04+0.35*0.05+0.2*0.08) = 0.3398 = 33.98 % (I think this is the rule of Bayes in probability theory)